RESERVE-BANK-OF-AUSTRALIA
RBA Hunter: Underlying Household Consumption Momentum Has Improve...
--Genuine improvement seen in underlying household spending momentum
--MARTIN model suggests it takes 9-12 months for monpol to have full impact on output
--Peak effect of inflation takes nearly twice as long as GDP
--Decision...
RBA Hauser: Moving On From Narrow Path But Uncertainties Ahead
--We are moving on from the narrow path
--Two key uncertainties are global trade policy and spare capacity in local economy
--Board doesn’t share market confidence sequence of further cuts will be required
--February cut...
RBA Minutes: Acknowledges Extended Hold Or Hike Possible If Infla...
--Debated Hold Vs Cut; Case for cut stronger on balance
--Accepted risk of extended hold/reversal in future vs holding off rate cut at this meeting
--If inflation proves more persistent cash rate could stay at 4.1% for extended perio...
RBA SOMP: 2.7% Trimmed Mean Inflation Profile but Assumes Mkt Pat...
--Trimmed /Headline CPI at 2.7% in June 2027 with cash rate profile in line with mkt
--Cash rate assumption (from mkt) includes 75bps cuts in 2025, 25bps in 2026
--Headline CPI profile 2.6% Dec 2024, 3.7% Dec 2025, 3.1% June 2026
RBA: Could relax monpol tightness if future data in line with or...
RBA Minutes: Appropriate to relax monpol tightness if future data in line with or weaker than expected
--Modest downside risk to RBA’s Q4 inflation forecast from rent, new dwelling costs
--Wages growth slowing occurred faste...
RBA Hauser: To Factor New Tariffs Developments in Policy Judgeme...
--Our Inflation Could Move in Either Direction from Global Tariffs Impact
--Implication for Australia inflation, hence monetary policy could be positive or negative
--Important we don’t prejudge implications of tariffs for poli...