Insight: Australia ABS to Additionally Publish CPI Excluding Childcare for Q2

By Sophia Rodrigues

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year CPI (consumer price index) excluding childcare for the June quarter as additional data to give users better insight into inflation during the quarter.

CPI excluding childcare will be calculated from the published data which will also give users an option to replicate it themselves.

There is increased focus on childcare in the June quarter because the free childcare introduced by the government is expected to have single largest downward impact on CPI.

Free childcare doesn’t mean childcare would be zero in the quarter because there are limits and not all qualify. If it were a 100% fall then an increase in the third quarter would be an infinite percent rise which would be meaningless.

For certain other expenditure, which are also expected to be close to zero, the ABS has decided to consider two imputation options.

Read more about that in our April 29 story:
https://centralbankintel.com/newsdetails/analysis-abs-imputation-options-could-prevent-sharp-australia-q2-cpi-fall

Q3 DECISION UNRESOLVED

Looking ahead to the third quarter, the ABS has another issue to resolve with respect to childcare.

This relates to a decision on whether to pro rata the movement to reflect the fact childcare was free up until July 12 or show the full increase.

The government announced last week that the Early Childhood Education and Care Relief Package will be extended until July 12 to keep services viable and to provide care for families of essential workers and vulnerable children. From July 13, families will pay childcare fees as per the arrangements that existed prior to April 6 when childcare became free.

--Contact: sophia@centralbankintel.com