ANZ analysts see NZ in leading position to normalize monpol
By Sophia Rodrigues
Published On 17 Feb 2021 , 11:35 AMForex analysts at ANZ have created an interesting pressure gauge to measure and rank the distance that each G10 economy is from its central bank's broad policy targets. According to the gauge, New Zealand is at leading position, the US is at number two and Australia is at number five. This means RBNZ should be the first one to normalize policy but according to ANZ analysts the relative openness and size of each economy will also play a role in determining when each respective central bank decides to move.
"On this front, with the US in number two position on our gauge, it is likely that most central banks will wait for the cover of a more hawkish Fed to start recalibrating policy. Equally, with the US in second place, it is possible they could be some adjustment to unconventional policies in 2021, even if formal policy rates stay on the lower bound," they wrote in a note.
The researchers are Daniel Been (head of fx), John Bromhead (fx strategist) and Rahul Khare (fx analyst).
LATEST SNIPPETS
Moody's warns profits of big four Australian banks under pressure
Profitability of the big four Australian banks is under pressures from low interest rates amid weak credit growt...
Published on : 25 Nov 2019 , 03:35 PMAustralia Oct Labor Data Dovish for RBA Dec Meeting
Australia's unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in October from 5.2%, due to 19,000 fall in employed numbers. This was...
Published on : 14 Nov 2019 , 12:00 AMWhy RBNZ will Hold OCR at 1%
I am a bit surprised with market reaction to RBNZ's inflation expectations survey yesterday. While I acknowledge...
Published on : 13 Nov 2019 , 12:00 AMMarket Pricing for RBNZ Cut --How Much is "Will do"?
In their markets outlook on Nov 11, economists at BNZ wrote, "RBNZ shouldn’t cut this week but probably wi...
Published on : 13 Nov 2019 , 12:00 AMWhat does RBA's Gentle Turning Point Refer to?
RBA Governor Philip Lowe first referred to gentle turning point at the Parliamentary testimony in August when he said...
Published on : 07 Nov 2019 , 12:00 AMExpect Dovish RBA Statement, Refined Forward Guidance
It is very unusual for both market and economists to be strongly expecting a particular outcome (hold) for a RBA boar...
Published on : 05 Nov 2019 , 12:00 AMAustralia: More Reason to Buy vs Rent Dwelling
More reason to buy vs rent? For the first time since at least 2007, gross rental yields for properties in Australia...
Published on : 01 Nov 2019 , 12:00 AMWill RBA Debate Further Easing at Nov Meeting?
Even before the RBA Nov board meeting begins, I am curious to find out if there will be a vigorous debate about...
Published on : 30 Oct 2019 , 07:21 AMRBA Should Cut Now to Avoid QE
A few weeks back I wrote an article about how in theory the RBA could avoid QE, but to do so requires continuation of...
Published on : 31 Oct 2019 , 07:15 AMAustralia: Housing Group Numbers Disappoint Most in CPI
The most disappointing numbers in Australia Q3 CPI are the ones for housing group. Rent rose 0.4% y/y (and below 1.0%...
Published on : 30 Oct 2019 , 07:13 AM