ANZ analysts see total A$300B AGS issuance now to June 2021
By Sophia Rodrigues
Published On 20 May 2020 , 10:21 AMANZ analysts expect total issuance of Australian government securities to exceed A$300 billion between now and June 30, 2021.
Current total outstanding government bonds, including this week's activities, is around A$650 billion, and this would reach A$850 billion by the end of next year, they say. This would mean new money requirement of A$200 billion in addition to at least A$93 billion between now and June 30, and thus total issuance across bonds, linkers and Treasury notes to be over A$300 billion, they say.
Most new issuance would be concentrated in the 3y-6y and 10y-12y parts of the curve, and likely new bond lines will December 2025, December 2031 and March 2051, they forecast.
Total T-notes issuance would be around A$212 billion between now and end-June next year, taking the outstanding at the end of that period to A$89 billion from A$46.8 billion currently. Net linker issuance would be between A$5 billion to A$10 billion, with A$45.5 billion outstanding by end-June 2021, but there's a risk it would be lower because of volatile CPI, ANZ analysts estimate.
LATEST SNIPPETS
Moody's warns profits of big four Australian banks under pressure
Profitability of the big four Australian banks is under pressures from low interest rates amid weak credit growt...
Published on : 25 Nov 2019 , 03:35 PMAustralia Oct Labor Data Dovish for RBA Dec Meeting
Australia's unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in October from 5.2%, due to 19,000 fall in employed numbers. This was...
Published on : 14 Nov 2019 , 12:00 AMWhy RBNZ will Hold OCR at 1%
I am a bit surprised with market reaction to RBNZ's inflation expectations survey yesterday. While I acknowledge...
Published on : 13 Nov 2019 , 12:00 AMMarket Pricing for RBNZ Cut --How Much is "Will do"?
In their markets outlook on Nov 11, economists at BNZ wrote, "RBNZ shouldn’t cut this week but probably wi...
Published on : 13 Nov 2019 , 12:00 AMWhat does RBA's Gentle Turning Point Refer to?
RBA Governor Philip Lowe first referred to gentle turning point at the Parliamentary testimony in August when he said...
Published on : 07 Nov 2019 , 12:00 AMExpect Dovish RBA Statement, Refined Forward Guidance
It is very unusual for both market and economists to be strongly expecting a particular outcome (hold) for a RBA boar...
Published on : 05 Nov 2019 , 12:00 AMAustralia: More Reason to Buy vs Rent Dwelling
More reason to buy vs rent? For the first time since at least 2007, gross rental yields for properties in Australia...
Published on : 01 Nov 2019 , 12:00 AMWill RBA Debate Further Easing at Nov Meeting?
Even before the RBA Nov board meeting begins, I am curious to find out if there will be a vigorous debate about...
Published on : 30 Oct 2019 , 07:21 AMRBA Should Cut Now to Avoid QE
A few weeks back I wrote an article about how in theory the RBA could avoid QE, but to do so requires continuation of...
Published on : 31 Oct 2019 , 07:15 AMAustralia: Housing Group Numbers Disappoint Most in CPI
The most disappointing numbers in Australia Q3 CPI are the ones for housing group. Rent rose 0.4% y/y (and below 1.0%...
Published on : 30 Oct 2019 , 07:13 AM