Important to note sharp April retail sales fall came after March jump

By Sophia Rodrigues

The 17.9% m/m record fall in retail sales (preliminary) for April published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today should be seen in the context of a record 8.5% m/m jump in March. 

If, for example, retail sales were flat m/m in March, the fall in April would be 10.9% m/m which should be an expected outcome given the lockdown. Also, it is likely that retail sales would rise in May given the easing in restrictions from the second half of this month. So net-net the sharp fall in April, while a terrible outcome, shouldn't be a surprise.