NAB Says RBA QE to End February 2022

By Sophia Rodrigues

Published On 29 Oct 2021 , 02:39 PM

National Australia Bank economists expect the RBA to end its bond purchase program (QE) by February, making it the first major bank to make a call for an end as early as February.

NAB economists have brought forward their RBA rate hike call to mid-2023 from 2024 forecast earlier. They also expect the RBA to drop the 10bps April 2024 bond target (they call it YCC) at next week's board meeting.

"The lack of the RBA’s commitment to the YCC target this week suggests the RBA will end YCC at next week’s November Board Meeting, which by extension will also include updated forward guidance by the RBA and require an upgrade for the inflation outlook included in the new set of staff forecasts released in the November SMP," NAB economists led by Alan Oster wrote in a note.

NAB's rationale for end of QE by February 2022 is that there is little use for the policy with most other central banks ending or tapering their QE programs.

LATEST SNIPPETS

Australia AOFM’s CEO Rob Nicholl To Join IMF

The chief executive of the Australian Office of Financial Management Rob Nicholl is leaving to join the International...

Published on : 22 Jul 2022 , 04:34 PM
RBA Lowe's speech on Wed not under embargo

RBA Governor Philip Lowe will deliver a speech on July 20, but the speech will not be released under embargo, the RBA...

Published on : 19 Jul 2022 , 04:03 PM
RBNZ Hike 50bps to 2.5%

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the official cash rate by 50bps for the third meeting in a row, taking the rat...

Published on : 13 Jul 2022 , 12:57 PM
RBA raises cash rate 50bps to 1.35%

The Reserve Bank of Australia has increased the cash rate target by 50bps to 1.35%, marking two consecutive 50-basis-...

Published on : 05 Jul 2022 , 03:03 PM
Westpac also ups RBA cash rate forecast to 2.1% by Dec (from 1.75%)

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans has raised his forecast for RBA cash rate, now expecting the policy rate to end 20...

Published on : 07 Jun 2022 , 05:21 PM
CBA ups RBA rate forecast; sees 2.1% year-end, with risk of 2.35%

Economists at Commonwealth Bank have revised higher their forecast for RBA cash rate, now expecting the rate to reach...

Published on : 07 Jun 2022 , 04:58 PM
NAB ups RBA cash rate forecast to 2% by Dec (from 1.35%)

Economists at National Australia Bank are revising up their RBA cash rate forecast following the 50bps hike on Tuesda...

Published on : 07 Jun 2022 , 04:15 PM
RBA raises cash rate 50bps to 0.85%

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate target by 50bps to 0.85%. The rate on Exchange Settlement balances...

Published on : 07 Jun 2022 , 02:47 PM
Australia net export to subtract 1.7 points from Q1 GDP

Net export will detract 1.7 percentage points from Australia's March quarter GDP, data published by Australian Bu...

Published on : 31 May 2022 , 11:44 AM
RBNZ Ups OCR 50bps to 2.0%

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised official cash rate by 50bps to 2.0%, as widely expected and issued hawkish pro...

Published on : 25 May 2022 , 12:15 PM