ANZ analysts see total A$300B AGS issuance now to June 2021

By Sophia Rodrigues

ANZ analysts expect total issuance of Australian government securities to exceed A$300 billion between now and June 30, 2021. 

Current total outstanding government bonds, including this week's activities, is around A$650 billion, and this would reach A$850 billion by the end of next year, they say. This would mean new money requirement of A$200 billion in addition to at least A$93 billion between now and June 30, and thus total issuance across bonds, linkers and Treasury notes to be over A$300 billion, they say.

Most new issuance would be concentrated in the 3y-6y and 10y-12y parts of the curve, and likely new bond lines will December 2025, December 2031 and March 2051, they forecast.

Total T-notes issuance would be around A$212 billion between now and end-June next year, taking the outstanding at the end of that period to A$89 billion from A$46.8 billion currently. Net linker issuance would be between A$5 billion to A$10 billion, with A$45.5 billion outstanding by end-June 2021, but there's a risk it would be lower because of volatile CPI, ANZ analysts estimate.