ANZ analysts see total A$300B AGS issuance now to June 2021

By Sophia Rodrigues

Published On 20 May 2020 , 10:21 AM

ANZ analysts expect total issuance of Australian government securities to exceed A$300 billion between now and June 30, 2021. 

Current total outstanding government bonds, including this week's activities, is around A$650 billion, and this would reach A$850 billion by the end of next year, they say. This would mean new money requirement of A$200 billion in addition to at least A$93 billion between now and June 30, and thus total issuance across bonds, linkers and Treasury notes to be over A$300 billion, they say.

Most new issuance would be concentrated in the 3y-6y and 10y-12y parts of the curve, and likely new bond lines will December 2025, December 2031 and March 2051, they forecast.

Total T-notes issuance would be around A$212 billion between now and end-June next year, taking the outstanding at the end of that period to A$89 billion from A$46.8 billion currently. Net linker issuance would be between A$5 billion to A$10 billion, with A$45.5 billion outstanding by end-June 2021, but there's a risk it would be lower because of volatile CPI, ANZ analysts estimate.

LATEST SNIPPETS

Westpac ups forecast for third round of RBA QE

Westpac has revised its forecast for RBA's Bond Purchase Program, now expecting the second A$100 billion bond-buy...

Published on : 26 Mar 2021 , 11:19 AM
AOFM’s auction of June 2031 Australian govt bonds performs well

AOFM’s auction of A$1 billion of 1.5% June 2031 bond today generates relatively strong demand with weighted ave...

Published on : 05 Mar 2021 , 11:12 AM
AOFM’s auction of June 2031 Australian govt bond eyed

The results of the AOFM’s auction of A$1 billion of 1.5% June 2031 bond today will be an interesting one, given...

Published on : 05 Mar 2021 , 10:26 AM
Greater interest in ASX’s Bond Basket for September 3-Yr Bond Futures

More than usual interest this time in the bond basket for ASX’s September futures contract for three years. The...

Published on : 04 Mar 2021 , 11:11 AM
RBA succeeds in driving 3-year yield down at bond-buying auction today

The RBA's aggressive buying of bonds for second consecutive day under the 0.1% three-year yield target polic...

Published on : 26 Feb 2021 , 02:52 PM
AOFM doubles T-Notes issuance next week, as expected

As expected, the AOFM doubled the amount of T-Notes at tenders next week to A$2 billion from A$1 billion in the last...

Published on : 26 Feb 2021 , 12:10 PM
RBA buying A$3B under yield target policy (as CB-Intel flagged)

The RBA has announced it will buy A$3 billion of the April 2023 and April 2024 government bonds under the yield targe...

Published on : 26 Feb 2021 , 11:38 AM
AOFM may raise T-Notes tender next week

After reducing weekly T-Notes tenders to just A$1.0 billion (lowest since March last year) last two times, the AOFM m...

Published on : 26 Feb 2021 , 10:56 AM
Could RBA surprise with bond-buying today?

All eyes on the RBA today for any announcement on bond purchases under the three-year yield target policy. Since Nove...

Published on : 26 Feb 2021 , 10:35 AM
Australia wage price index beat expectations as some wage reductions unwind

Australia's wage price index beat expectations with a 0.6% q/q and 1.4% y/y rise in December 2020 quarter, data p...

Published on : 24 Feb 2021 , 11:37 AM