Big Four Banks Forecast for RBA Cash Rate

By Sophia Rodrigues

Big four banks' forecast for the RBA cash rate:

--ANZ expects first rate hike in 1H of 2024. "Our 'expected value' for the cash rate by early 2023 is above 0.1%, even though our central forecast is that the RBA won’t lift it until the first half of 2024."

--CBA expects rate hike in May 2023. "We retain our call for the RBA to commence normalising the cash rate from May 2023 whilst acknowledging the risks are skewed towards a later date for lift off."

--Westpac expects first hike in 1Q of 2023. Forecast for cash rate is 25bps 1Q 2023, 50bps 2Q 2023 and 75bps 4Q 2023.

--NAB expects first hike in 2024. "We think the first increase in the cash rate target could be 40bps to 0.50%, given the actual cash rate is likely to remain nearer the bottom of the corridor than the official target rate."