NAB Says RBA QE to End February 2022

By Sophia Rodrigues

Published On 29 Oct 2021 , 02:39 PM

National Australia Bank economists expect the RBA to end its bond purchase program (QE) by February, making it the first major bank to make a call for an end as early as February.

NAB economists have brought forward their RBA rate hike call to mid-2023 from 2024 forecast earlier. They also expect the RBA to drop the 10bps April 2024 bond target (they call it YCC) at next week's board meeting.

"The lack of the RBA’s commitment to the YCC target this week suggests the RBA will end YCC at next week’s November Board Meeting, which by extension will also include updated forward guidance by the RBA and require an upgrade for the inflation outlook included in the new set of staff forecasts released in the November SMP," NAB economists led by Alan Oster wrote in a note.

NAB's rationale for end of QE by February 2022 is that there is little use for the policy with most other central banks ending or tapering their QE programs.

LATEST SNIPPETS

RBA Lowe at parliamentary hearing via videoconference on Thu

RBA governor Philip Lowe will appear before a Select Senate Committee on COVID-19 on Thursday. Lowe will answer quest...

Published on : 25 May 2020 , 06:37 PM
AOFM sells Nov 2022 bond at record low tender yield 0.2384%

The AOFM has sold A$2.0 billion of 2.25% November 2022 government bond at a weighted average issue yield of...

Published on : 25 May 2020 , 11:05 AM
AOFM provides issuance update; no more syndication this year

The AOFM has announced an issuance update today, saying total gross bond issuance for 2019-20 would be A$130 billion,...

Published on : 22 May 2020 , 12:15 PM
AOFM sells Nov 2024 bond at 0.3576%

The AOFM has sold A$2.0 billion of 0.25% November 2024 government bond at a weighted average issue yield of 0.35...

Published on : 22 May 2020 , 11:04 AM
T-notes tender beyond six months may be back today

The decision to issue T-notes beyond six-month maturity is a tricky one for the AOFM, as it needs to balance the slig...

Published on : 22 May 2020 , 08:59 AM
Important to note sharp April retail sales fall came after March jump

The 17.9% m/m record fall in retail sales (preliminary) for April published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics to...

Published on : 20 May 2020 , 12:31 PM
AOFM sells 2032 bond at 1.0672% Yield

The AOFM has sold A$2.0 billion of 1.25% May 2032 government bond at a weighted average yield of 1.0672%.&n...

Published on : 20 May 2020 , 11:05 AM
ANZ analysts see total A$300B AGS issuance now to June 2021

ANZ analysts expect total issuance of Australian government securities to exceed A$300 billion between now and June 3...

Published on : 20 May 2020 , 10:21 AM
AOFM sells May 2028 govt bond at 0.7711%

The AOFM has sold A$1.0 billion of 2.25% May 2028 government bond at a weighted average yield of 0.7711%. T...

Published on : 18 May 2020 , 11:05 AM
AOFM Restricts Maturity of Next Wk's Treasury Note Tenders to Six Months

The AOFM has announced the following tenders for next week, totaling A$5.0 billion of bonds and A$4.0 billi...

Published on : 15 May 2020 , 12:15 PM