My tweets from first session of RBA's Parliamentary testimony today
By Sophia Rodrigues
Published On 07 Feb 2020 , 10:59 AMRBA Lowe: If the unemployment rate were to be moving MATERIALLY in the wrong direction n there was no further progress being made towards inflation target, the balance of arguments would tilt towards a further easing of monpol. Emphasis on "materially"
RBA Governor Lowe has used one word "materially" in the opening statement and I can almost visualize all those with April rate cut forecast getting worried. Can we strike off May..June..July and go straight to August?
So now we have more clarity. RBA Lowe has realized interest rate cuts have been driving recent rise in housing prices. "dominant factor is lower interest rates, reduction in interest rates." Not structural factors this time.
RBA Lowe: I won't characterize Australian economic is lackluster, I would say it is OK. It could be a lot better
RBA Lowe: I am pushing back against the view that lower interest rates damaged household confidence.
RBA Lowe acknowledges maybe there was policy mistake in 2018 when RBA didn't cut. BUT as he says we know this only in hindsight. RBA couldn't have known in real time.
RBA Lowe: we are doing the best we can do to support medium-term macro stability.
RBA Debelle: When facts change, I change my mind. Well dear Debelle, we are all banking on that.
RBA Lowe: There is nothing monpol can do to get inflation to middle of target band (2.5%) by 2021. Because "we would have to have interest rates three or four percentage points lower than we are now."
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