Big Four Banks Forecast for RBA Cash Rate

By Sophia Rodrigues

Published On 17 Sep 2021 , 10:50 AM

Big four banks' forecast for the RBA cash rate:

--ANZ expects first rate hike in 1H of 2024. "Our 'expected value' for the cash rate by early 2023 is above 0.1%, even though our central forecast is that the RBA won’t lift it until the first half of 2024."

--CBA expects rate hike in May 2023. "We retain our call for the RBA to commence normalising the cash rate from May 2023 whilst acknowledging the risks are skewed towards a later date for lift off."

--Westpac expects first hike in 1Q of 2023. Forecast for cash rate is 25bps 1Q 2023, 50bps 2Q 2023 and 75bps 4Q 2023.

--NAB expects first hike in 2024. "We think the first increase in the cash rate target could be 40bps to 0.50%, given the actual cash rate is likely to remain nearer the bottom of the corridor than the official target rate."

LATEST SNIPPETS

AOFM issues A$14B of Nov 2032 govt bond via syndication

The AOFM has issued A$14 billion of the 1.75% 21 November 2032 bond issue at a price of +12.5bps, and indicative yiel...

Published on : 13 Apr 2021 , 10:22 AM
Australia 2032 Bond Syndication Prices at 12.5bps Over 10yr Futures

Pricing for The Australian government's 1.75% 21 November 2032 bond issue has been set at +12.5bps, and the order...

Published on : 13 Apr 2021 , 09:37 AM
Westpac ups forecast for third round of RBA QE

Westpac has revised its forecast for RBA's Bond Purchase Program, now expecting the second A$100 billion bond-buy...

Published on : 26 Mar 2021 , 11:19 AM
AOFM’s auction of June 2031 Australian govt bonds performs well

AOFM’s auction of A$1 billion of 1.5% June 2031 bond today generates relatively strong demand with weighted ave...

Published on : 05 Mar 2021 , 11:12 AM
AOFM’s auction of June 2031 Australian govt bond eyed

The results of the AOFM’s auction of A$1 billion of 1.5% June 2031 bond today will be an interesting one, given...

Published on : 05 Mar 2021 , 10:26 AM
Greater interest in ASX’s Bond Basket for September 3-Yr Bond Futures

More than usual interest this time in the bond basket for ASX’s September futures contract for three years. The...

Published on : 04 Mar 2021 , 11:11 AM
RBA succeeds in driving 3-year yield down at bond-buying auction today

The RBA's aggressive buying of bonds for second consecutive day under the 0.1% three-year yield target polic...

Published on : 26 Feb 2021 , 02:52 PM
AOFM doubles T-Notes issuance next week, as expected

As expected, the AOFM doubled the amount of T-Notes at tenders next week to A$2 billion from A$1 billion in the last...

Published on : 26 Feb 2021 , 12:10 PM
RBA buying A$3B under yield target policy (as CB-Intel flagged)

The RBA has announced it will buy A$3 billion of the April 2023 and April 2024 government bonds under the yield targe...

Published on : 26 Feb 2021 , 11:38 AM
AOFM may raise T-Notes tender next week

After reducing weekly T-Notes tenders to just A$1.0 billion (lowest since March last year) last two times, the AOFM m...

Published on : 26 Feb 2021 , 10:56 AM